⛏️ The Material Reality: Why Hard Assets Win, Regardless of AI Hype

Hard assets will win regardless of the outcome of the battle for AI. Here's why the leaders in the mining industry will be key to determining the outcomes.

Last week, some of the biggest tech stocks showed another series of market jitters over the AI frenzy and whether the bullish era of AI-tech moves is beginning to slow. The week brought out advocates and foes on both sides, asking some version of whether a bubble does or does not exist.

On one side, folks like Mohamed El-Erian warned that the AI bubble will “end in tears” and on the other, Softbank goes “all in” on OpenAI to the tune of $30 billion.

But, as we’ve detailed here at Prinsights, generative artificial intelligence will be transformative. The massive, yet inconvenient truth is: AI needs electrons, not just data.

Every surge in computing power, every new data center, every military drone, and every shiny EV requires a foundational layer of hard, mined materials. When the digital noise settles, the actual value will reside in the companies that extract, process, and control the world’s physical resources.

For investors seeking a genuine and geopolitical-backed edge, the kind that can transcend market cycles and speculative manias, the time to add the world’s miners and hard assets to a portfolio is now. The truth is that their fate is not tied to whether the latest AI model hits its quarterly targets or whether a government can step in to prop them up in times of trouble. Miners’ outlooks are often tied to global power shifts and the undisputable laws of physics.

Beyond the Hype: The Non-Negotiable Demand Drivers

The current push to own miners is a blend of three distinct, massive, and non-cyclical demand currents that will keep shovels digging for decades. While AI is a powerful accelerator, these other forces are its bedrock and capital drivers:

1. The Defense Industrial Complex: Global tensions are at their highest levels in decades. This environment guarantees an insatiable demand for metals that power advanced weaponry, critical radar and guidance systems and advancements in aerospace technology. This is important to consider because defense contracts are long-term, government-backed, and require materials like rare earth elements, specifically neodymium and praseodymium, which are critical for the permanent magnets used in military drones and advanced defense tech.

2. The Global Energy Transformation: This transformation is fundamentally a metals trade. Electrifying transportation and upgrading decades-old power grids cannot be done with software. The upgrade requires unprecedented amounts of copper, the indispensable metal of electrification, along with lithium and cobalt for battery storage at grid-scale and in every new electric vehicle.

3. Industrial and Infrastructure Needs: Even before the AI boom, global powers were committed to modernizing aging infrastructure. This includes everything from the billions poured into new grid networks to the manufacturing of heavy machinery. These industrial demands ensure a baseline level of consumption of base metals and alloys, underpinning the global economy’s physical functioning.

The Global Push: Three Bullish Legislative Signals

Forget promises and press releases; look at the cold, hard cash and policies governments are committing to secure these supply chains. Legislative action across the global chessboard provides the clearest bullish indicators for 2026 and the years ahead.

In 2025, the U.S. and Australian governments enacted or significantly reinforced policies that directly incentivize domestic mining and processing of hard assets, including:

• Unleashing America’s Offshore Critical Minerals and Resources Executive Order: The executive order from the White House extended the effort to harden and modernize the power grid, especially in preparation for the massive power demand of AI data centers and continued renewable energy integration. This is a direct, undeniable bullish signal for both the nuclear space and key metals like copper, aluminum, and nickel.

• Interior Department releases final 2025 List of Critical Minerals: By formalizing the crucial list, the U.S. government effectively is signaling which domestic mining, processing, and recycling projects could receive accelerated funding, permitting, and tax incentives. For investors, it allows a renewed focus on strategic capital allocations toward miners involved in the critical minerals featured on the list.

• United States-Australia Framework for Securing of Supply in the Mining and Processing of Critical Minerals and Rare Earths: The landmark framework signed in October by President Donald Trump and Australian Prime Minister Anthony Albanese offers the two countries the ability to ramp up the buildout of mineral supply chains that can counter China and offer resiliency from potential pushback from adversaries. As part of the framework, within the next six months $1 billion will be invested in financing projects located in each of the U.S. and Australia with the goal of generating end products for buyers in both markets. In addition, the U.S. Export-Import Bank is set to issue letters of interest for projects worth a total of $2.2 billion in financing (potentially catalyzing up to $5.0 billion in total investment), all with the goal of strengthening supply-chain security.

The combined firepower of the U.S. government (as the core consumer and technology hub) and Australia (as the primary, stable source of critical mineral extraction) makes them the essential geopolitical anchors of the hard asset investment trade.

Where Hard Money Meets Hard Assets

While critical minerals are the gears of the new economy, it’s crucial to acknowledge the role of precious metals as well (several are positioned in Prinsights Pulse Premium and Founders+ model portfolios).

In an environment defined by geopolitical tensions and dollar skepticism, copper, gold, silver, and PGMs remain the ultimate safe-haven assets.

• Copper gets tailwinds from energy projects and supply scarcity.

• Gold continues its historic run, benefiting from central bank de-dollarization and investor flight to stability.

• Silver gets a double boost: its “everyday man’s gold” appeal, coupled with surging industrial demand from new solar installations and high-tech components.

• PGMs like platinum and palladium are increasingly vital to sustainable energy, vehicles and technology sources.

The trend is clear: the energy transition, global tensions and next-generation technology all share a single, unshakeable dependency on materials extracted from the earth. The companies that own these physical assets are the true power players on the global chessboard. For investors, ignoring the noise on the day-to-day AI headlines and strategically allocating a portfolio that includes materials from the ground it stands on will be crucial.

👀 Stay tuned: This week, we’ll be delivering our latest Founders+ monthly issue that includes a deep dive into the U.S. and global competitive copper landscape and the single domestic producer we believe is positioned to break out as these structural forces tighten further. It’s a substantial issue, integrating our copper analysis and our first semi-annual model portfolio review – together with a special bonus interview you won’t want to miss.

If you’re not yet a Founders+ member, join here now to get the timely analysis we share and work to get ahead of the coming cycle in copper.